The September Cash Flow Check: Five Things to Review Before the Final Quarter

Finance News & Regulation

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By Sure Capital

September sits in a useful spot on the calendar. The EOFY dust has settled, the first BAS of the new financial year is a few weeks away, and the busiest trading period for most Australian businesses is still far enough off to plan for properly. It is also the last quiet window before the run into Christmas, when decisions tend to get made under pressure rather than on purpose.

A structured half hour now saves a great deal of scrambling in November. These are the five areas worth working through.

1. Upcoming expenses you already know about

The final quarter of the calendar year is expensive in ways that are easy to underestimate individually and hard to ignore collectively. Christmas stock deposits, casual and seasonal staff, annual insurance renewals that often fall in October, software licences and shutdown wages over the break all land within roughly twelve weeks of each other.

Write them down with a date and a dollar figure against each. Most owners carry this list in their head, which works fine until two of the items arrive in the same week. Seeing the total on one page is often the moment the scale of the quarter becomes clear.

2. ATO obligations, including the ones that changed this year

The first quarterly BAS of FY27 is due 28 October for most quarterly lodgers, covering GST and PAYG withholding from July to September. PAYG income tax instalments follow the same schedule for businesses paying quarterly.

The bigger change is superannuation. Since 1 July 2026, under Payday Super, super guarantee contributions must be paid with every pay run and reach the employee’s fund within seven business days. The quarterly super float, which many businesses relied on as an informal buffer for years, no longer exists. If your cash position has felt tighter since July at the same turnover, this is usually why.

September is the first point where three months of the new pattern is visible in your bank statements, which makes it the right time to reassess what your true monthly outgoings now look like. If any ATO amount is already on a payment plan, note that the General Interest Charge has not been tax deductible since 1 July 2025 and compounds daily. It is one of the more expensive forms of borrowing a business can carry into a busy quarter.

3. Existing repayments and facilities

Pull every facility onto one page: overdraft, equipment finance, credit cards, supplier accounts, any short-term loan. For each, note the balance, the rate, the monthly commitment and whether it is genuinely being used as intended.

The most common finding is an overdraft that has not returned to zero in months. An overdraft is built to absorb short timing gaps and then clear. When it sits permanently near its limit, it has become long-term debt at a short-term price, and a structured business line of credit or term facility will usually cost less and leave more headroom. Consolidating three or four expensive facilities into one is a job that is far easier to do in September than in December.

4. Stock requirements and lead times

For retailers, wholesalers, hospitality venues and any business that carries inventory, this is the month the Christmas order gets decided. Suppliers are quoting delivery dates now, and by mid October the good stock, the good pricing and the reliable freight windows are largely gone.

The practical question is whether the order size matches a realistic forecast rather than an optimistic one, and whether the cash to pay for it exists without stripping the operating account. Stock bought in September and sold in December creates a gap of roughly ninety days, and that gap needs a plan.

5. Expected revenue, honestly assessed

Forecast October to December sales on last year’s actuals, adjusted for anything that has genuinely changed, not on what would be nice. Then look at your debtor days. If customers are paying at 45 days on 30 day terms, December revenue does not become December cash, and January is already the quietest month of the year for most Australian SMEs.

The point of this step is not pessimism. It is knowing the shape of the curve in advance so that the tight fortnight in late January is expected rather than a surprise.

What to do with what you find

Most businesses that complete this review discover a gap somewhere, usually a timing gap rather than a structural one. The right response is to arrange funding now, while September trading data looks steady, rather than in December when the pressure is on.

A pre-approved line of credit costs nothing while undrawn. An unsecured business loan can settle within 24 hours if a specific bill needs covering. For businesses holding a healthy debtor book, invoice finance turns work already completed into cash. The common thread is that lenders assess recent bank statements, and a September application is assessed on a calmer set of numbers than a December one.

Sure Capital works with more than 50 lenders and assigns a dedicated finance specialist to every application, so the structure is matched to your business rather than pushed through an algorithm. See if you qualify in a few minutes, or call 1300 198 514 to work through your final quarter plan with our team.

This article provides general information only and is not tax, legal or financial advice. Lending criteria, terms and tax outcomes depend on your individual circumstances. Speak with your accountant or a qualified finance professional before making decisions.

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